Alright, let’s keep the ball rolling here. Every Thursday, the Swing State Project is taking a look at five GOP-held Senate seats that are up for grabs in 2008, and asking you to submit your recruitment suggestions for each of these races. (The first one was here and last week’s was here.)
Here is this week’s shortlist up for discussion. Links are to the 2008 Race Tracker wiki for inspiration, and incumbents are in parens:
11) North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole)12) Nebraska (Chuck Hagel)
13) New Hampshire (John Sununu)
14) New Mexico (Pete Domenici)
15) Oklahoma (James Inhofe)
Like David said the first time:
Don’t limit yourself to politicians. Businesspeople, community leaders, activists – even athletes or celebrities (think Heath Shuler or Al Franken) – are all fair game. Even seemingly outlandish suggestions are welcome. Would you have ever predicted that the guitarist from Orleans would now be a Congressman-elect?
However, as usual, please do limit yourself to the five races listed in this post. I know everyone is excited to discuss the whole load of upcoming races, but the quality of discussion is enhanced greatly when we stay focused on just a few Senators at a time. I’ve really enjoyed some of the suggestions that you have submitted so far.
So, whaddya got?
North Carolina: Obviously Mike Easley’s name will come up but its been oft-mentioned that he’s not interested in going to DC. His Lt. Gov will probably run for his job. I look at two people as good candidates. Attorney General Roy Cooper is a guy who would be a very good candidate but I think he could also be looking at the Gov. race too, and he’s said he’s running for re-election to the AG’s office but I think Schumer could twist his arm. Congressman Brad Miller is another guy who I think could be a strong candidate.
Nebraska: This is dependent on Hagel not running for re-election which is a strong possiblity. If he runs though I don’t think its even worth discussing. I’m not too up on NE politics but I think Scott Kleeb could be a strong candidate if he ran.
New Hampshire: John Lynch would’ve been ideal but he’s not interested. Jeanne Shaheen looks like she’s gonna run and she’ll be a solid candidate.
New Mexico: Same as above, if Domenici runs again don’t even bother. Otherwise Congressman and former Attorney Tom Udall would be a strong candidate and the mayor of Albuquerque who has said he’d be interested if Domenici retired would also be a good candidate.
Okahoma: As we saw in 04, winning in this state in a presidential year is almost impossible. But if anyone can pull it off its Gov. Brad Henry but it’ll take a damn good sales job by Schumer to pull that off.
Mike Fahey, mayor of Omaha. He won reelection in 2005 very convincingly. He has overseen tremendous growth in the city of Omaha. And he’d certainly be a strong candidate for Nebraska Democrats in 2008. I don’t think he runs unless it’s an open seat (he can run for a third term as mayor in 2009), but he is a very strong candidate for Senate.
Aren’t the Buffets in Omaha? What about Warren’s daughter who tends to be the political one in the family, from what I hear. Of course money wouldn’t be a problem.
He was as progressive as you can get and he almost beat the seemingly untouchable Jesse Helms twice. I think he could definately take out Dole as North Carolina seems to be the only Southern state with a leftward trend.
Gov. John Lynch: No.
Jeanne Shaheen: Maybe (strongest pick at the moment).
Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand (young, successful, but with an actively Republican wife): Considering.
State Senator (and trial lawyer) David Gottesman from Nashua: Exploring.
Others mentioned: State Sens. Peter Burling & Maggie Hassan.
Some outsider ideas: Ken Burns, Dean Kamen, the guy who runs Stonyfield farms, and (if I should ever win the lottery) me.
All things oppo-Sununu can be found at the Sununu tag at Blue Hampshire (it’s smallish now, but it’s growing rapidly and should be a thick, thick, file once the campaign begins in earnest).
btw, Sununu is polling under 50% and Chuck Todd’s got him as the 5th most vulnerable Senator. As a result, watch Johnny pull hard to the center on Iraq, REAL ID, et alia.
. . . that McCain would pick Sununu. Sure, he’d have a shot at carrying New Hampshire, but there are lots of swing states with more electoral votes AND that represent entire regions. Having one red state in the northeast won’t send a message the way having, say, a red Minnesota would. So, while Sununu’s name might get mentioned, I doubt McCain would choose him. Plus, it’d be a double-senator ticket, and that rarely wins! If I were a betting woman, I would anticipate McCain picking Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota as veep.
Anyway, as far as these senate races go, here are my suggestions:
1. NC– I agree that Gantt would make a strong candidate. I don’t know for sure whether he’d win– North Carolina IS a red state, and doesn’t have THAT much of a leftward trend, since the Research Triangle area cannot carry the state.
2. Nebraska– Good call on mentioning Susie Buffett. I’ll second that!
3. New Hampshire– Perhaps Jeanne Shaheen, although grudge matches in senate races rarely end up with a change of hands. The good thing is, right now New Hampshire is trending bluer, and has a deep Democratic bench. I’m sure a quality candidate will emerge, and will be able to beat Sununu.
4. New Mexico– Udall, Udall, Udall! Regardless as to whether or not Domenici retires, Udall is our best bet.
5. Oklahoma– A lost cause, folks. As I always say, run strong candidates everywhere, but don’t break the bank in places you can’t win.
11) North Carolina : Gov. Mike Easley, Former Gov. Jim Hunt, Cong. Brad Miller, Cong. Bob Etheridge, St.Sen. Pres. Marc Basnight. A bucketload of possibilities can be found here including Michael Jordan & Elizabeth Edwards:
http://www.bluenc.co…
12) Nebraska: Scott Kleeb, Former LG Maxine Moul
13) New Hampshire: Former Gov. Jean Shaheen, Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, St. Sen. David Gottesman
14) New Mexico: Cong. Tom Udall, Albuquerque City Councilman & Former Council Pres. Martin Heinrich. (Not P. Madrid,please)
15) Oklahoma: Former Cong. Brad Carson
North Carolina: Mike Easley (who’s probably not running) or some of the other statewide dems. Maybe congressmen Brad Miller or Heath Shuler
Nebraska: No one. Lets face it, we’re not going to win this one–there’s one dem who can win state wide in NE and that’s Ben Nelson. The three congressional candidates we had are often mentioned for this seat, but if they can’t win a congressional race in 06, they can’t win statewide in 08, when the GOP candidate is likely to get a ridiculously high win here.
New Hampshire: Not John Lynch. I want to see him take out a much bigger opponent, Judd Gregg, in 2010. Jean Shaheen would be the best, followed by Hodes and Shea-Porter, and any ambitious state legislators. Sununu should be our second biggest target (after CO) this year.
NM: Domenici (even though he’s goin senile) is practically untouchable if he runs for re-election. We will NOT pick up this seat if Patricia Madrid is the candidate. She is retarded, and that’s why she lost a race she should have won. Tom Udall or Bill Richardson if he gives up his presidential campaign would be able to beat Heather Wilson statewide.
OK: We need to contest this whether or not Inhofe runs. He has a very low approval for an Oklahoma republican, and needs to be a target. Either Governor Henry or Rep Boren have the potential to beat him, and I think they’d be favorites in an open-seat race. I’d personally rather see Boren go this year, and Henry take out Coburn in 2010.
North Carolina: If Heath Shuler wasn’t newly elected to the house, I think he could make a run of it. Maybe he can run in 2010 against Burr. As for right now: Mike Easley’s fairly obvious. How about John Edwards (again)?
Nebraska: Scott Kleeb. The only way we’ll get this one is if Hagel retires though.
New Hampshire: John Lynch. Jeanne Shaheen. Hodes and Shea-Porter are a little too new to challenge Sununu right now.
New Mexico: Domenici says he’s not retiring but I don’t believe it. Udall’s a good choice. Maybe Richardson can hold off running for pres and angle for this seat. Madrid as a last resort?
Oklahoma: Brad Henry. Jari Askins. Susan Savage. Dan Boren.
Any thoughts?
…a Fahey-Gov, Kleeb-Lt. Gov ticket would be a great future lineup. A perfect melding of urban and rural voices for Nebraska.
Kleeb is well positioned right now. He’s got the contacts, the buzz, the name ID, the volunteers, and a campaign staff looking around for new jobs. Hell, he’s still got the website and the mailing list. The truth is that he’s not going to lose the “carpetbagger” label in four years, maybe not even six years. The Republicans will hold onto that as long as they can. But he may very well lose the excitement and momentum that fueled his campaign in those final weeks.
Basically, the two big recruits for this race are Kleeb or Fahey. Mike Fahey is an incredibly likable campaigner and he’s been a very effective mayor. But I don’t see how you win over rural voters when your first name is “Democrat” and your last name is “Mayor of Omaha”. There’s a lot of people outstate who don’t trust and don’t like Omaha, for reasons that the Fahey administration has only exacerbated with their plan to forcibly annex Elkhorn.
Listen, let’s break this down:
If we take the Ben Nelson 2000 race as a model for how a Democrat just barely breaks 50% statewide, then we get the following formula (according to the Almanac of American Politics): win Omaha with ~ 54%-46%, win Lincoln by ~ 60%-39%, lose the rest of the state by ~54%-46%. Could Fahey perform stronger in Omaha than Nelson? I think he could, he does seem very popular here. But I just don’t see him breaking 40% in rural Nebraska. I grant you it’s possible. But the last mayor of Omaha to win statewide was Ed Zorinsky in 1976, and that was an unusual race between two Omaha Republicans (though Zorinsky, at that time, had technically been a Democrat for a couple of months).
Personally, I think Kleeb has more potential to win Omaha and Lincoln than Fahey has to remain competitive in the third district. I would be happy if Fahey was our nominee, but he’s not my first choice.
Shameless plugging here, but I had a chance to sit down with Scott Kleeb recently and interview him for the New Nebraska Network. He did not close the doors on running in 2008, although he seems sincerely focused on other matters at the moment. If anyone’s interest, the interview is posted here: http://newnebraska.b…
North Carolina – Elaine Marshall
Nebraska – Kleeb / Fahey
New Hampshire – Jeanne Shaheen
New Mexico – Martin Chavez
Oklahoma – Edmondson / Carson / Boren
She lost by 18%. She wouldn’t stand a chance in a statewide race.
Kleeb’s a good choice, Fahey as well.
I escaped from exile in Oklahoma a couple years ago, but when I was there, one of my state reps was a very impressive guy named Mike Morgan. Mike is currently the Oklahoma State Senate President Pro Tem as well as the Vice Chair of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. He has crossover appeal and would be an excellent candidate to replace Inhofe. I’d also like to see Brad Carson take another shot. And Barry Switzer’s a Democrat — he would totally win if he ran, the way football is worshipped in Oklahoma! Have to say that Oklahoma has the most embarrassing pair of Senators & that it would be great to retire Inhofe and Coburn.
Kleeb’s got a lot of choices ahead of him, and I’m not really sure what his plans would be. I’m mostly speculating, and I think Kleeb’s an important voice for Nebraska. I just want to make sure he has the best shot at winning.
You’re right about Omaha. Maybe we’ll get lucky and Hal Daub or Lee Terry will be the nominee (certainly would help Jim Esch in NE-02 if that happened).
I hope Hagel does not run, because this can be a competitive seat. But, for the sake of every candidate, we need the statewide organization in here again, to help build the party for the future, and hopefully pick off a Senate and House seat.
8 out of the 9 statewide elected officials at the state level are Democrats. This shows two things:
1) Democrats can win statewide in Oklahoma.
2) There is a large pool of potential candidates who won in 2006 and would have a free pass in 2008 to run for Senate.
As indicated, Brad Henry will probably not run.
However, here are other possible candidates with their 2006 percentage:
Drew Edmundson (AG): 61%
Scott Meacham (Treasurer): 59%
Sandy Garrett (Sup. of Public Instruction): 63%
The LG, Auditor, Labor Commissioner and Insurance Commissioner are all Democrats who got between 50% and 52% of the vote in 2006.
Richard Moore, the state treasurer, has been raising money for a bid for Governor, but is looking at a tough primary as Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue has quite a lead in the early going.
Moore could set up a campaign and then switch to the Senate race.
Wrote about this before the election but I think it still applies
http://www.exileonjo…
Here’s an excerpt:
Early 2007 will be shakeout time for challengers
The nascent vincibility of Liddy will likely cause the campaign to unseat her to kick into high gear. Speculation in this area always surrounds the intentions of Gov. Easley and Attorney General Roy Cooper, who announced in July he would seek re-election and not run for governor. But there’s also talk about Greensboro state Rep. Pricey Harrison and State Treasurer Richard Moore, who has been lining up a bid for governor mansion. Moore may just decide that taking on Lt. Governor Beverly Perdue in a primary will be a heck of a lot harder than going head to head with Liddy in the general.
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First of all, Chuck Hagel will probably be going for re-election once he realizes he won’t get the nomination for POTUS. He’s just about unbeatable, getting 80+% in 2002.
About your comparison with Kleeb and Nelson. Ben Nelson was a very popular governor of the state, and everybody knew who he was. Most of Nebraska still doesn’t know who Scott Kleeb is, and they don’t have a reason to trust him.
I don’t know much about Fahey, but in order to win NE, we need to win rural areas of Nebraska, not just Omaha and Lincoln.
We’re pretty much on the same page. I prefer Kleeb, but if he decides to settle down and get a nice job somewhere I’d be more than happy if Fahey ran Like you said, Daub and Terry would have their own problems winning statewide and both are real possibilities for the Republican nomination. I just think Kleeb would be better positioned to take advantage of their shortcomings out west.
Here’s hoping Hagel retires. This could very well be an interesting race if he does, and we certaintly need some more competitive races to help rebuild our statewide infrastructure. Actually, if Hagel retires I think it’d be a crime if we didn’t compete in this race. It’d really be humiliating if we didn’t have a credible candidate, considering our party’s track record for winning Senate races.
BTW, this is Ryan Anderson of the New Nebraska Network. I remember we had this discussion in person at the River City Roundup parade when we were working for the Esch campaign. At least we don’t have to worry about Witek candidacy anymore!
NE-03 went for Bush by an amazing 75-24. The fact that Kleeb was even remotely competitive in this district (the 6th-most Republican in the nation by PVI) is nothing short of remarkable.
However, there were two big factors to consider: The wave year, and the open seat. If Hagel retires, then we at least get #2. And conceviably if Bush’s war is still extremely unpopular, we might get a bit of our mojo from #1 back, too.
Besides a retirement, there are three possibilities to keep in mind:
1) He runs as a Democrat.
2) He runs as an independent.
3) He loses a Republican primary.
I don’t know whether he’s addressed the first two, but, despite his generally conservative views, he’s not that different from Sen. Nelson (and clearly to the left of him on Iraq). I’m not sure whether a three-way race would help or hurt the chances of the Democratic nominee.
The most recent SurveyUSA poll pegs Hagel’s approval rating at 47%-47% among conservatives (he’s more popular among moderates and liberals), which, if memory serves me, is a bigger base problem than Arlen Specter or Joe Lieberman had initially. Both the NE and SC races deserve watching because the incumbents could lose Republican primaries.
I have no clue whatsoever about Oklahoma politics, but Edmondson has always (well, since the day after the election, lol) seemed like a viable Senate candidate. Are there any indications whether he is open to running?
Nice to know the 49 State Strategy is alive and well.
The Nebraska Democrats have actually won 9 out of the last 11 Senate races. Chuck Hagel’s the only Republican to win a seat here since 1970, and he won it by defeating (55-45%) Ben Nelson. My point being: if Nelson can lose -statewide- by ten points and then turn around and win two elections in a row, why can’t Kleeb make a similar comeback when his loss came in a district that is far more (about 9% according to Cook PVI) Republican than the state as a whole? As I said above, Nelson actually lost Kleeb’s district in 2000 by almost the same margin and still managed to win his Senate race.
And Mike Fahey has won two elections in a row (one of them by a landslide margin) in a city that contains about 1/3rd of the state’s population. Why are you so quick to dismiss him?
You really overestimate how Republican this state is when it comes to Senate races. Unfortunately, you’re only slightly underestimating the Democratic bench at this moment. I’m afraid that after Kleeb and Fahey our field is pretty bleak. Maybe Matt Conneally, but I don’t have many hopes for any of our other potential recruits to win statewide.
I think he could run, and he’s a tremendous candidate if he does run. But I wonder if it might be better for him to not run in 2008, establish himself in the state, and run for something in 2010 (Governor?) or 2012 (Senate if Nelson retires). He’s young, so he does have a lot of time to make a decision.
All of it’s moot if Hagel decides to run for reelection anyway. We may have to find a political outsider similar to Kleeb or Jim Esch to challenge Hagel if that happens.
would be a good candidate.
And hey, feel free to quote the NNN on the front page anytime! Haha. It’s been kinda slow around our blog lately, wouldn’t hurt to drive a few more visitors our way 🙂
Inoufe is highly unpopular, his approval’s haven’t broke in years, and Oklahoma is an ancestrally Democratic state. Not to mention but on top of that we hold almsot every statewide office now, and have several well known statewide officials considering a run, and Congressman Dan Boren, son of highly popular Senator David Boren, who once held Inoufe’s senate seat until he retired early in 1994.
If Pete Dominici decides to run again, I agree that he is untouchable. If he steps down, Tom Udall, the 3rd District Congressman would be a strong candidate and his seat would most likely stay Democratic. Marty Chavez, the very popular “Mayor Marty” of Albuquerque would also be a strong contender but do not overlook the possibility of him running as a Republican.
And Richardson has said that he will not go against Domenici; neither will Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez. I’m really hoping that Tom Udall won’t, because I don’t think he could win.
However, if Domenici steps down to let Heather Wilson step up to the plate… it’s open season, and I think that Richardson would win easily, Chavez and Udall would have strong chances to win.
I was thinking of posting excerpts to the front page yesterday, but I’m in the middle of exams right now. Thanks for posting the link.
😉
I think I’d just pick Voinovich as VP and call the election over.
The LG is Mary Fallin, a Republican extremist, no? Or has she resigned the LG post now that she’s won Istook’s seat in Congress? One can hope. . . .
Also, the Commissioner of Labor is R, as is the entire three-person Corporate Commission.
Individual Democrats can win in Oklahoma, and win big. But by and large it’s still an awfully red state, one that would choose Tom Coburn over Brad Carson and one that continues to elect miserable Republican candidates to Congress.
If Richardson does not run for president he would be one Democrat who could defeat Domenici.